Reserve Bank of Australia RBA Watch
Market data
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RBA Cash Rate Probability — Live Market Consensus

71.2%
HOLD
Markets expect the RBA to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.60%. No move is the dominant call.
Cash Rate
4.60%
Current target
Next Meeting
03 Nov 2026
25 days away
Implied Rate
4.67%
After next meeting
Expected Move
+7 bps
Basis points

Market-Implied Probabilities

ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures
Next Meeting Breakdown
Probability of each outcome
Implied Rate Path
Market-implied cash rate across upcoming meetings

Meeting-by-Meeting Detail

All upcoming RBA board meetings
Meeting Date Consensus Probability Implied Rate Δ vs current Moved by now? (cum.)
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Latest RBA News

Checked every 15 minutes
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Your mortgage
💰 What does this mean for your home loan?
Markets are pricing a 29% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting, though a hold remains the consensus. Keep an eye on your home loan rate.
Compare rates on Finder → Canstar comparison → Free Lendi assessment →

How to read this

The probabilities shown are derived from ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures — financial contracts that price in market expectations for the RBA's overnight cash rate. They represent the current market consensus, not a forecast or guarantee.

A probability of 75% for "Hold" means that, based on current futures pricing, markets believe there is a 75% chance the RBA will keep rates unchanged at that meeting. These probabilities change daily as new economic data (inflation, employment, GDP) and RBA communications are released.

Data source: ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, updated daily after market close (4:00 PM AEST). Not financial advice. For personalised mortgage advice, speak with a licensed broker.